As world leaders prepare to gather in Baku for COP29, this year’s climate negotiations must secure global climate action financing while maintaining momentum on phasing out fossil fuels.
In what many see as a striking paradox, Azerbaijan – a country whose economy relies heavily on fossil fuels—will host this year’s pivotal UN climate change conference, COP29. This is the second consecutive climate summit presided over by a petro-state, following COP28’s hosting by the UAE, and so raises questions about commitment to meaningful climate action.
Azerbaijan’s hosting of COP29, from November 11-22, 2024, forms part of an unprecedented ‘triple COP’ sequence – a coordinated three-conference strategy aimed at resetting global climate action with the goal of keeping temperature rises inside 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
What is COP?
The Conference of Parties (COP) brings together governments that have signed up to be a part of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the international environmental treaty of the Kyoto Protocol (1997), or the landmark and legally-binding Paris Agreement (2015).
The annual gatherings serve as the primary forum where world leaders, ministers, and negotiators convene to forge joint approaches to addressing climate change.
2024: The year of triple COPs
2024 marks a critical juncture for climate action as we approach the midpoint of what the UN declared to be the ‘decade of action’. The challenge of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius grows increasingly daunting. With global public debt surpassing $100 trillion, countries face tough choices about climate investments. This year offers a unique opportunity to revitalise global environmental commitments through coordinated action.
Three major environmental COPs addressing interconnected challenges will occur starting in October and lasting until mid-December. Beyond the climate-focused COP29 in Azerbaijan, the COP16 of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity in Colombia took place between October 21 and November 1.
The final part of the ‘triple COP’ is the COP16 of the UN Convention to Combat Desertification in Saudi Arabia, which will be held between December 2 and December 13.
The three summits, known as the ‘Rio Conventions,’ originated from the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Their close scheduling this year emphasises the intricate links between climate change, biodiversity loss, and land degradation.
Each conference addresses distinct but interconnected environmental challenges: while the Biodiversity COP focuses on protecting 30% of the planet by 2030, the Desertification COP tackles drought resilience and land degradation issues.
The timing creates an extraordinary opportunity to drive coordinated action across the interconnected issues. Success in one area can reinforce progress in others – for instance, protecting biodiversity can help mitigate climate change, while reducing emissions helps prevent desertification.
However, the challenge lies in ensuring these conferences work harmoniously rather than competing for attention and resources.
The fossil fuel dilemma
The choice of host nations for recent COPs highlights the complex challenge of transitioning away from fossil fuels. The current ‘Troika’ of COP hosts – UAE, Azerbaijan, and Brazil – constitutes the world’s fourth-largest oil-producing bloc, after the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.
This presents both an opportunity and a significant risk. While these countries intimately understand the challenges of fossil fuel dependence, they also have strong incentives to slow the pace of transition. COP28 in Dubai made history with the first-ever agreement to “transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems” – a breakthrough after 28 years of negotiations.
However, maintaining momentum under Azerbaijan’s presidency poses unique challenges. In September, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) rated the country “critically insufficient. “Azerbaijan is among a tiny group of countries that has weakened its climate target [and] the country is doubling […] fossil fuel extraction,” said the CAT analysts.
Azerbaijan’s state-owned oil and gas company, Socar, and its partners, are set to raise the country’s annual gas production from 37 billion cubic metres (bcm) today to 49 billion bcm by 2033.
Socar also recently agreed to increase gas exports to the European Union by 17% by 2026. A new report produced by Urgewald and CEE Bankwatch found Azerbaijan was set to increase its gas production by a third in the next decade, with fossil fuel companies forecast to spend $41.4bn (£31.9bn) on the country’s gas fields.
According to the report, Socar alone spent almost $300m on exploration for new oil and gas between 2022 and 2024.
The finance challenge
At the heart of COP29’s agenda lies the crucial question of financing the global transition away from fossil fuels. The conference must establish a New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) for climate finance, replacing the previous target of $100 billion annually from developed to developing nations – a goal only met in 2022 amid accusations of creative accounting.
Developing countries argue that the needed funding is in the trillions, not billions. The conference must, therefore, address how to mobilise private finance and reform global financial architecture while tackling contentious issues like fossil fuel subsidies and potential ‘solidarity levies’ on oil profits.
COP28 established a fund for climate impacts in developing countries, yet current pledges of $661 million pale in significance compared to needs. Recent hurricanes causing $55 billion in damage in the US illustrate the scale of the challenge.
Carbon markets and beyond
After nearly a decade of negotiations, COP29 could finally establish functioning international carbon trading mechanisms. While these markets can generate significant climate finance, concerns remain about standardisation and the risk of ‘greenwashing.’ The host nation’s expertise in energy markets could prove valuable, but its vested interests in fossil fuel exports raise questions about its ability to broker ambitious agreements.
From paradox to progress? The Baku challenge
COP29 represents a crucial juncture in global climate action. Success will require resolving long-standing divisions between developed and developing nations over climate finance while maintaining pressure for ambitious emissions reductions. The irony of a fossil fuel-dependent host nation-leading these discussions adds another layer of complexity to already challenging negotiations.
However, some argue that having major fossil fuel producers engaged in climate leadership could ultimately accelerate the transition – if they can be persuaded to use their expertise and resources to drive change rather than resist it. As climate impacts escalate and the window for action narrows, the success or failure of COP29 could have profound implications for global climate action.
